Friday, August 20, 2010

TƯỚNG TRUNG CỘNG ĐÒI CẢI CÁCH

General Liu Yazhou

Trung tướng Không quân kiêm chính ủy Học viện Quốc Phòng Trung Quốc Lưu Á Châu vừa bày tỏ ý kiến trong ngày 10-8-2010 là Trung Quốc phải cải tổ nhiều hơn, phải theo đường lối chính trị và kinh tế Mỹ nếu Trung Quốc muốn tồn tại. Đây là một tiếng sét trong chính giới, nó chuẩn bị cho một trào lưu mới của Trung Quốc, hy vọng sẽ đưa đến cho Trung Quốc và thế giới sự hòa bình và thịnh vượng, khác với khuynh hướng bảo thủ và hiếu chiến hiện nay. Sau đây là tiểu sử và các bài viết của ông. và các bài viết về ông bằng ba ngôn ngữ Hoa, Anh Việt để độc giả tiện theo dõi.
Sơn Trung


Liu Yazhou: A Young Turk in China's Establishiment

A YOUNG TURK IN CHINA’S ESTABLISHMENT: THE MILITARY WRITINGS OF LIU YAZHOU

By Alfred Chan

Liu Yazhou, a 53 year-old PLA general, erstwhile novelist, and rising political star, has published a series of frequent and provocative essays in China over the last few years to considerable acclaim—and controversy. In a regime where political expression is strictly limited, and where discussion of political issues may be construed as “revealing state secrets,” for someone to speak with establishment credentials and without censorship can be a startling indication of policy discussion and change.

Liu’s essays violate many taboos and restrictions, covering a wide range of topics such as strategy, geopolitics, the nature of war and conflict, and China’s relations with Taiwan, Japan, and the United States. His underlying theme is unvarnished distress with corruption and conformity, and a plea for accelerated political reform to remedy China’s ills. While laced with reverent quotations from top Chinese leaders, Liu’s writings can be construed as indirect and direct criticisms of their policies. These arguments have dazzled as well as upset his readers; supporters praise his boldness and insight, and detractors condemn his alleged militarism and demagoguery.

A son-in-law of the late Chinese president Li Xiannian, Liu is a “princeling” (privileged offspring of a high official) who was promoted quickly and is now Deputy Political Commissar and a Lieutenant General in the PLA Air Force. He has traveled extensively overseas, including a term as a visiting professor at Stanford University, and is one of the few PLA officials to have visited Taiwan.

Liu’s first big splash was an essay on the October 1949 Jinmen battle circulated on the Internet last year, when tensions between China and Taiwan prompted hawks in Beijing to urge a military showdown, putting enormous pressure on the civilian leadership [1]. Liu reviewed the lessons of the Jinmen debacle, in which a PLA invasion was routed by Guomindang forces, with the loss of more than 9,000 troops. He attributes the devastating loss to complacency, along with poor planning and command.

According to Liu, history threatened to repeat itself in the late 1990s when hardline officials argued that Taiwan must be fought and that victory was certain. Disclosing a previously unseen Jiang Zemin quote—“A war in the Taiwan Strait is inevitable” (“Lessons of the Jinmen Battle”)—without providing the context, he argues that the lessons of Jinmen must be heeded, especially because the Taiwan issue is now internationalized and considerably more complicated.

In an essay entitled “The Grand National Strategy,” likely written in 2001, Liu repudiates the idea of taking advantage of the September 11 aftermath to conquer Taiwan with an overpowering attack [2]. Taiwan should not be the focus of China’s strategy: the more the Chinese fixate on it, he argues, the more they will be manipulated by the U.S. and Taiwan. This obsession has provided Washington with undue leverage over Beijing for the last half century.

In the same essay, Liu privileges diplomacy over fighting, and suggests that China can effectively engage Taiwan by exploiting Taiwan’s multi-party system. China can deal with not only with the Democratic Progressive Party, but also with other political forces, a view that may have contributed to Hu Jintao’s decision to invite Guomindang leader Lin Chan and James Soong of the People First Party to visit China in April/May of this year.

His appeals for moderation notwithstanding, Liu’s discourses on strategy reveal that he is a nationalist as well as a realist. His ‘dream’ is to have a strong army and country. “The sole purpose of power is to pursue even greater power,” and “national interest should forever be the highest principle of our action,” he writes in “Faith and Morality.” [3] Balance-of-power and divide-and-rule tactics seem to be his guiding principles.

The projection of Chinese influence in international affairs should be specifically calibrated to the West in general and United States in particular, Liu argues. Citing Huntington’s thesis on the clash of civilizations, Liu views the alleged clash between the West and the Muslim world as a great opportunity. He argues in “The Grand National Strategy” that China’s improved relations with Muslim countries are an excellent move, since China “should do what the West fears.” In a moment of great exuberance, Liu maintains that China should have an outlet to the Indian Ocean, what he terms “China’s new boundary.”

Liu is more ambivalent about Sino-U.S. relations. While he acknowledges that the United States, as the world’s dominant power, will inevitably pursue policies that antagonize China, he believes America realizes that the forces for bilateral cooperation are greater than conflict. U.S. leaders would never instigate a full-fledged military confrontation. The United States is to be regarded as neither a wholesale enemy nor an ally.

Militarily, he urges Chinese leaders to learn from U.S. innovations in the military and its recruitment system. China’s military strategy is obsolete, he says in “Faith and Morality,” as its experts today still strategize of a “people’s war” of “luring the enemy into a trap.” It is a ‘tragedy’ that in China, from the top to the bottom, “those who are intelligent do not make policy, those who make policy are not intelligent.”

Indeed, as a Lieutenant General with a primarily civilian background, Liu emphasizes the important role of the military. Intervention during the Tiananmen crisis of 1989 stabilized the regime, he asserts in “Faith and Morality,” and the Sino-Vietnam war of 1979 contributed greatly to reforms. Deng Xiaoping used the war to consolidate his authority vis-à-vis the leftist remnants in the party. In the same article, Liu contends that China, by invading Vietnam, signaled the abandonment of “phoney” socialism, and also “avenged and vindicated” (chuqi) the U.S. experience in Southeast Asia.
In return, China’s reforms benefited from subsequent U.S. investment and economic, military, scientific, and technological assistance in a decade-long “honeymoon,” thus ensuring that China would stand firm, even after the worldwide collapse of communism. As in other developing countries, the Chinese military is a force for reform, and modernization without the participation of the military is inconceivable, although Liu does not explain why this should be so.

Toward the Japanese Liu is a nationalist. While his essays paint Japan as a “fierce” neighbor, he argues that a strong, independent Japan apart from an alliance with the United States would be easier to deal with. In such a case, Japan could act as a buffer, and to that end China would do well to support Japan’s membership as a permanent member of the UN Security Council.

Last April, however, Liu was angered by Japan’s announcement to begin drilling for oil in disputed areas of the East China Sea. His attempt to convene a conference on Sino-Japanese relations was reportedly prohibited by Hu Jintao. Liu then published an angry manifesto on the Internet, “Military Forum,” co-signed by nine military colleagues bluntly denouncing the Japanese for being haughty, provocative, and bullying [4]. It urged annulment of all treaties that renounced reparations—using a referendum if necessary—and immediate reopening of talks for reparations covering issues such as war crimes, the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands, and the textbook and Yasakuni shrine controversies (“Military Forum”).

Liu’s most daring ideas are those championing political reform and decrying corruption, censorship, and China’s “backward” political system. The strategic threat to national security, he argues in “The Grand National Strategy,” comes from within rather than from without. To strengthen the country, it is imperative that China’s leaders introduce political reform, especially when the dynamism of economic growth begins to slow. In an apparent dig at ruling elites, he warns that upholding stability as a primary goal and maintaining the status quo was the root cause of Soviet dissolution. Political reform for Liu requires a democratic yielding of power, a transformation of the people as their own masters, and rigorous methods to make the country prosperous, although, bowing to official orthodoxy, he is careful to concede that reform should include the “consolidation of the CCP’s ruling position” as well.

Democracy, he argues in “Conversation with a Secretary of a County Party Committee,” is a demand, a way of expression, an exchange process, and a way to resolve problems [5]. Rules, fairness, and citizen consciousness, the prerequisites of democracy, all have to be cultivated. Rampant corruption is the greatest political challenge and a dictatorial system based on the monopoly of power is itself fertile ground for corruption. In contrast to Asia’s other rising power, Liu notes that China’s poor are not only deprived of adequate food and clothing but they do not even have the vote.

The oppressed peasantry, Liu continues, which poses the greatest challenge to communist orthodoxy, must be thoroughly liberated and turned into citizens able to engage in active political participation. If political reform is further delayed, revolution from below may occur, he warns in “Conversation.”

As a military officer Liu Yazhou’s free airing of provocative views on both foreign and domestic issues, especially his calls for political reform and the freedom of expression, is unprecedented. Though a realist, a nationalist and a hardliner against Japan, Liu’s moderate views contrast sharply with those who still preach “people’s war” or the use of nuclear weapons. In his calls for new thinking and introspection, Liu represents military young Turks dissatisfied with the civilian leadership’s inability to deal with corruption and social crises. Fears of praetorian intervention in civilian politics may be exaggerated, but the issues Liu raises are real indeed.

Alfred L. Chan is an associate professor of political science at Huron University College, University of Western Ontario, Canada. He thanks Don Hickerson for editing the manuscript.

Notes
1. Liu Yazhou, “Jinmen zhanyi jiantao” (Lessons of the Jinmen Battle), April 2004,
http://www.yannan.cn/data/detail.php?id=2882.
2. Liu Yazhou, “Da guoce” (The Grand National Strategy),” n.d., http://www.yannan.cn/data/detail.php?id=2884.
3. Liu Yazhou, Xinnian yu daode” (Faith and Morality), January 2, 2005, http://www.yannan.cn/data/detail.php?id=5840.
4. Liu Yazhou, Peng Guangqian, Liu Hongji, et al., “Junfang yantaohui: yuren zunwo, bixian zizun: ribenren weihe duiwo changkuang” (Military Forum: If one expects respect, one must respect oneself: Why are the Japanese so recklessly provocative?), April 14, 2005, http://www.qian-ming.net/gb/viewarticle_gb.aspx?vID=818.
5. Liu Yazhou, “Yu yiwei xianwei shuji de tanhua” (Conversation with a Secretary of a County Party Committee), December, 2004, http://www.bjsjs.net/news/news.php?intNewsId=1304.

http://plamonitor.spaces.live.com/Blog/cns!E7E207975D3C0D37!143.entry

TƯỚNG TRUNG CỘNG ĐÒI CẢI CÁCH

China must reform or die

中国不改革则死

JOHN GARNAUT
August 12, 2010

A Chinese two-star general has warned his conservative Communist Party masters and firebrand People's Liberation Army colleagues that China must either embrace US-style democracy or accept Soviet-style collapse.

一名中国的2星将军警告他的保守的中国共产党的主子和激进的解放军的同僚,中国要么拥抱美式的民主,要么接受苏式的垮台。

As officers of similar rank rattle their sabres against US aircraft carriers in the Yellow and South China seas, General Liu Yazhou says China's rise depends on adopting America's system of government rather than challenging its dominance off China's eastern coast.

当同级别的军官在黄海和南海对美国的航母采取战争恫吓的姿态的时候,刘亚洲将军说,中国的崛起与其在东海挑战美国的优势地位,倒不如依赖于采纳美国的政府决策系统。

''If a system fails to let its citizens breathe freely and release their creativity to the maximum extent, and fails to place those who best represent the system and its people into leadership positions, it is certain to perish,'' writes General Liu Yazhou in Hong Kong's Phoenix magazine, which is widely available on news stands and on the internet throughout China.

“如 果一种制度不能让他的公民自由呼吸,并且最大程度的释放他们的创造力,制度的最佳表现不能达到这些,它的老百姓可以进入领导层,这个制度一定会 死亡。”刘亚洲将军在香港的凤凰杂志上写道。这份杂志在报摊和中国的互联网上处处可见。(此话差也,通过百度搜索,可知此文已经被相当彻底的敏感掉了。)

The fact of General Liu's article suggests China's political and ideological struggles are more lively than commonly thought, ahead of a rotation of leaders in the Central Military Commission and then the Politburo in 2012.

刘将军的文章暗示了一个事实,在2012年军委和政治局轮换之前,中国的政治和意识形态的斗争比普遍认为的激烈。

''The secret of US success is neither Wall Street nor Silicon Valley, but its long-surviving rule of law and the system behind it,'' he says. ''The American system is said to be 'designed by genius and for the operation of the stupid'.

“美国成功的秘密既不是华尔街也不是硅谷,而是它们背后的长期延续的法律和制度。”他说,“美国的制度据说是为了让笨人操作而由天才设计的。”

''A bad system makes a good person behave badly while a good system makes a bad person behave well. Democracy is the most urgent thing, without it there can be no sustainable rise.''

“一个坏的制度使好人表现得很坏,同时,一个好的制度使坏人表现得很好。民主是最紧迫的事情,没有它中国就不能继续崛起。

General Liu was promoted recently from deputy political commissar of the PLA Air Force to political commissar of the National Defence University. His father was a senior military officer and his father-in-law was Li Xiannian, one of Chinese communism's ''Eight Immortals'' - and a one-time president of China.

刘将军最近从空军副政委提升为国防大学的政委。他父亲是一名资深军官,他岳父是中国共产主义的“八仙”之一,前国家主席李先念。

While many of China's ''princelings'' have exploited their revolutionary names to amass wealth and power, General Liu has exploited his pedigree to provide protection to push his contrarian and reformist views.

虽然许多中国的“太子党”利用他们的革命血统积累财富和权力,刘将军却利用自己的血统保护自己推动背道而驰的立场和政治观点。

But General Liu's latest writings are extraordinary by any standards. His article urges China to shift its strategic focus from the country's developed coastal areas, including Hong Kong and Taiwan - ''the renminbi belt'' - towards resource-rich Central Asia.

但是刘将军最近的著作从任何角度看都是异乎寻常的。他的文章力促中国转变战略焦点从沿海地区,包括香港和台湾——人民币地带——转向资源富裕的亚洲中心。

But he argues that China will never have strategic reach by relying on wealth alone. ''A nation that is mindful only of the power of money is a backward and stupid nation,'' he writes. ''What we could believe in is the power of the truth.

他主张,只依赖财富永远不会有战略上的到达。“一个只是不忘金钱力量的国家是倒退和愚蠢的。”他写道:“我们可以相信的是真理的力量。”

''The truth is knowledge and knowledge is power.''

“真理就是知识,知识就是力量。”

But such national power can only come with political transformation. ''In the coming 10 years, a transformation from power politics to democracy will inevitably take place,'' he says.

但是这样的国家权力只有伴随政治改变才能到来。“在下一个10年,一个从集权政治到民主的改革将会不可避免的发生。”他说。

General Liu inverts the lesson that Chinese politicians have traditionally drawn from the collapse of the Soviet Union - that it was caused by too much political reform - by arguing that reform arrived too late.

刘将军反转了中国政治家从崩溃的苏联身上得出的传统教训——苏联的解体是由于太多的政治改革造成的——主张改革到来的太晚。

Since 2008 the Communist Party has steadily tightened the political screws to stifle dissent.

从2008年起共产党开始坚定的加强政治控制,镇压异议分子。

Many Chinese are concerned that reforms have been blocked by powerful military, security, corporate and family groups that benefit from the status quo.

许多中国人担心,改革已经被得益于现状的强大的军队、安全警察、公司和家委会阻挡。

General Liu was famously outspoken until he stopped publishing his essays about five years ago.

刘将军以直率出名,直到5年前停止出版散文随笔为止。

It is unclear how his latest article appeared and whether he has backing within the system.

不太清楚他的最新的文章为什么会出现,以及是否得到了制度内的支持。

Last year Hong Kong's Open magazine published a leaked report of one of General Liu's internal speeches which raised the taboo topic of how some generals refused to lead troops into Tiananmen Square in 1989.

去年,香港开放杂志出版了一份刘将军内部演讲的泄漏报告,其中包含明显的禁忌话题:为什么一些将军拒绝带领军队进入天安门。

General Liu returned to the subject of Tiananmen in his Phoenix article, saying ''a nationwide riot'' was caused by the incompatibility of traditional power structures with reform.

刘将军在他的凤凰杂志的文章中回到天安门的主题,说“一场全国范围的骚乱”是由于传统权力结构的改革不兼容而造成的。


Tướng Cộng sản Trung Quốc dám nói rõ sự thật
Bùi Tín viết riêng cho VOA Thứ Bảy, 14 tháng 8 2010
Bùi Tín blog

Đó là Trung tướng không quân Liu Yazhou - Lưu Á Châu, 53 tuổi, hiện là Chính ủy của Học Viện Quốc phòng Trung quốc.

Trên báo Phoenix (Phượng hoàng), tiếng Anh, xuất bản ở Hồng kông sáng 12-8, xuất hiện bài luận văn của Trung tướng Lưu, được nhà báo John Garnaut giới thiệu, với đầu đề khá hấp dẫn «Quản trị theo mô hình Mỹ hay là chết».

Quả thật đây là một bài báo rất đáng đọc kỹ và đáng suy ngẫm, đối chiếu với tình hình nước Việt Nam ta, với mối quan hệ Việt-Trung và Việt-Mỹ đang là những vấn đề bàn luận nóng hổi, khi gần đến Đại hội XI của đảng Cộng sản Việt Nam.

Tướng Lưu có những suy nghĩ độc đáo, mạnh dạn, ngoài luồng của tư duy chính thống của đảng CS Trung quốc, đi ngược với đường lối cả đối nội và đối ngoại của Nhà nước Trung hoa, nói ngược với cơ quan tuyên huấn, với Nhân dân Nhật báo Bắc kinh, với Tân Hoa Xã.

Xin trích những ý tưởng nổi bật của tướng Lưu trong bài viết:

«… nếu một hệ thống không cho người dân được thở không khí tự do và phát huy sức sáng tạo đến mức cao nhất, nếu hệ thống ấy không lựa chọn được những người tốt nhất làm đại diện cho chế độ và nhân dân để đưa vào các vị trí lãnh đạo, hệ thống ấy sẽ đi đến diệt vong ».

« … bí quyết thành công của Hoa Kỳ không nằm ở phố Wall hay ở thung lũng Silicon mà nằm ở hệ thống luật pháp tồn tại lâu đời và ở hệ thống chính trị gắn liền với nó ».

« … hệ thống của Hoa Kỳ được thiết kế bởi những thiên tài, và giúp cho những người ngu ngốc cũng có thể vận hành được ».

« …một hệ thống tồi khiến một người tốt cũng hành xử tồi, trong khi một hệ thống tốt sẽ khiến ngay cả một người tồi cũng có thể hành xử rất tốt ».

« … Dân chủ là điều cấp thiết nhất; không có dân chủ không thể có sự trỗi dậy bền vững ».

Về con đường Trung quốc phát triển đi lên đạt dân giàu nước mạnh, tướng Lưu khẳng định:

« …một quốc gia chỉ chăm chú nhìn vào sức mạnh của đồng tiền của mình, đó chỉ là một quốc gia chậm tiến và ngu dốt.
Điều chúng ta có thể đặt lòng tin là sức mạnh của sự thật.
Sự thật là kiến thức. Kiến thức là sức mạnh ».

Tướng Lưu kết luận:

« … Trong 10 năm tới, ở Trung quốc, một sự chuyển đổi từ chính trị của vũ lực, chính trị của cường quyền sang dân chủ là điều không thể tránh khỏi ».

« … Liên Xô sụp đổ là vì cải cách chính trị tiến hành quá muộn, chứ không phải vì cải cách chính trị quá mức ».

Trong khi lãnh đạo đảng CS Trung quốc tập trung vào hướng độc chiếm Biển Đông nhằm khai thác tài nguyên dầu mỏ to lớn tại đó thì tướng Lưu khuyến cáo rằng hãy chuyển hẳn sang hướng lục địa phía Tây, nơi có những nguồn tài nguyên đa dạng dồi dào hơn nhiều.

Điều khá lạ lùng là tại sao một luận văn trái chiều, ngược chiều đến vậy viết từ lục địa lại được xuất hiện, được tán phát ra ngoài, được Google dịch ngay và tán phát ra hàng mấy chục thứ tiếng, chỉ sau vài giờ sau khi xuất hiện ở Hồng kông. Sau tờ Phoenix, tờ báo the Age của Úc cũng đưa ngay bài này với nhiều lời bình. Trung quốc lục địa vốn thực hiện biện pháp kiểm duyệt rất nghiệt ngã, tinh vi.

Điều lạ hơn nữa là ông Lưu Á Châu là một Trung tướng thuộc quân chủng Không quân của Quân Giải phóng Nhân dân Trung quốc, là một chính ủy, từ phó chính ủy quân chủng Không quân, vừa lên chức Chính ủy Ðại học Quốc phòng, một cơ sở trọng yếu của quốc gia, lò rèn luyện hàng ngũ cán bộ lãnh đạo, chỉ huy cao cấp cho toàn quân. Nhiệm vụ hàng đầu của chính ủy học viện là quán triệt đường lối chính trị hiện hành của đảng. Vậy mà sao ông Lưu lại có thể tự do viết và gửi bài ra ngoài, với nội dung phóng khoáng, với những ý tưởng mạnh mẽ như những phương châm, những khẳng định chân lý đặc sắc đến vậy?

Và đằng sau ông là ai? Là những ai?

Chúng ta hãy chờ xem phản ứng của nhà đương quyền Bắc kinh, của ban tuyên huấn đảng CS Trung quốc, của các học giả chính thống rất đông đảo ăn lương nhà nước Trung hoa, của Nhân dân Nhật báo, của Tân Hoa xã… xem họ sẽ phản biện ra sao đây?

Tìm hiểu tiểu sử của tướng họ Lưu, được biết cha ông là một sỹ quan cao cấp rất có uy tín, bố vợ ông là cố Chủ tịch nước Lý Tiên Niệm – Li Xiannian, nhiều khóa là Ủy viên thường vụ Bộ chính trị Trung ương đảng CS, một lãnh đạo có tiếng là khắc kỷ - nghiêm khắc trong cuộc sống riêng. Tướng Lưu viết báo từ 4 năm nay, với tư duy sâu sắc, ý tưởng độc đáo và mạnh mẽ, có luận chứng vững. Ông dám bênh vực cuộc nổi dậy của sinh viên ở Quảng trường Thiên An Môn hè 1998.

Các chiến sỹ dân chủ nước ta, mọi tấm lòng tha thiết với tự do vui mừng được đọc bài báo mang tư duy tiến bộ, thâm thúy của một Trung tướng Trung quốc đang tại ngũ, của một chính ủy cộng sản đang tại chức, 53 tuổi, dám nói thẳng ra thanh thiên bạch nhật điều mình cho là đúng, là thật, dù phải nói trái với đảng, nói ngược với bộ chính trị, vì gắn bó với nhân dân mình, sống chết với lẽ phải, kiến thức và chân lý. Một nhân cách đáng tham khảo học tập vậy.

* Blog của Nhà báo Bùi Tín là blog cá nhân. Các bài viết trên blog được đăng tải với sự đồng ý của Ðài VOA nhưng không phản ánh quan điểm hay lập trường của Chính phủ Hoa Kỳ.

http://www1.voanews.com/vietnamese/news/politics/tuong-cong-san-trung-quoc-dam-noi-ro-su-that-08-14-10-100697434.html





Quote of the Day: General Liu Yazhou (刘亚洲) on democracy in China

liuyazhou.jpg


"The secret of US success is neither Wall Street nor Silicon Valley, but its long-surviving rule of law and the system behind it... Democracy is the most urgent; without it there is no sustainable rise. Ideals of democracy are not restricted by national borders, or by historical ones."

"美国成功的秘密不在于华尔街,也不在于硅谷,而在于长盛不衰的法治和法治背后的制度... 没有民主,就没有持久的崛起。民主思想传播不受国界限制,也不受历史限制"

General Liu Yazhou (刘亚洲), Political Commissar of the National Defence University

Written in an article in Hong Kong magazine, Phoenix (凤凰_刊). General Liu is known for being one of the most outspoken and reformist members of the PLA. In the same article, he also added that "If a system fails to let its citizens breathe freely and release their creativity to the maximum extent, and fails to place those who best represent the system and its people into leadership positions, it is certain to perish," and promised that in the next ten years, China would certainly see political change.





刘亚洲语出惊人 胡星斗致信胡锦涛

中共国防大学政委刘亚洲中将近日接受香港媒体采访时,预言中国在十年内必将向民主政治转型。此言一出立即在网上传开。此外,北理工教授胡星斗向胡锦涛致建议信,坦言中国的"死路"和"出路"。

刘 亚洲是在接受香港《凤凰周刊》采访时谈到对中国政改方向的预测。香港媒体原本想请他论述中国西部的国际环境以及中国的"西进战略"。身为 中共国防大学政委、也有"将军作家"之称的刘亚洲在访谈后半部却话锋一转,批评了中共大搞的"金钱外交",表示"钱多并不意味软实力提升","中国在非洲 大肆投资行贿的做法,也让当地民众对中国政府和企业极为反感"。

"敢言的军中'异类'"

这位中共将领还 直言,中国在未来十年内不可避免地要向民主政治转型,因为"没有退路"。现年57岁的刘亚洲是中国前国家主席李先念的女婿,又是中纪 委委员,公开发表此番言论立即引起媒体关注,也迅速传遍网络论坛。中国博客作家杨恒均在接受德国之声采访时表示,刘亚洲的这番表述并不令他感到吃惊:

"作为军方高级将领我很吃惊,但是刘亚洲讲这样的话我不吃惊,他一向言论很大胆,此前讲过类似的话。它是军中的'异类',但也是代表了很有良心、有远见的人。"

刘 亚洲中将在访谈中还以前苏为例,表示苏联的失败主要在于制度被打垮。刘亚洲说,"美国成功地秘密不在华尔街,而是长盛不衰的法治和法治背后的制 度。...中国并不缺乏真理,而缺乏容忍真理存在的土壤。"学法律出身、对中国政治和社会动态十分关心的杨恒均认为,刘亚洲的话代表了中共内部不少人的想 法:

"就是不能再这样搞下去了,不能再这样统治下去了。一定要变,至于怎么变,大家观点不同。但是在中国的政治文化中,不会有人把这些 想法说出来的。刘 亚洲将军不同的就是,他很早就开始使用宪法赋予的言论自由的权利。我认为,言论自由就是这样讲出来的,你不讲,靠别人给你是没用的。"

致信胡锦涛 谈中国"死路"和"出路"

同样行使言论自由权利的还有北京理工大学经济教授、研究"中国问题学"和"中国弱势群体经济学"的胡星斗8月8日致胡锦涛建议信,阐述对中国"死路"与"出路"的看法。胡星斗教授在接受德国之声采访时,介绍了写这封建议信的初衷:

"目前中国处于改革的十字路口,也是关系到执政党何去何从的关键时刻。我感觉目前中国一方面经济发展,另一方面经济、政治、社会改革都出现了停滞甚至是逆向改革的状况。我总结,中国长期以来没有把社会公平和正义作为执政的基础。"

胡星斗教授

Bildunterschrift: Großansicht des Bildes mit der Bildunterschrift: 胡星斗教授

这也是胡星斗在其给中国国家主席胡锦涛的建议信第一部分里提到的中国正在走的"死路"根源,即公平与正义已亡,中国至今没有走上治国正道。在为中国的"出路"提出的几点建议中,胡星斗首先强调宪政:

"我主张走符合中国国情的渐进的改革之路,不主张全盘西化的自由之路,而是称之为宪政社会主义。"

具 体的主张包括:人民拥有主权、选举权、监督权、出版权;高层由人民授权、人民普选产生人大代表;基层人民自治;维护宪法的绝对尊严等。胡星斗教授 还特别提出,以阳光财政作为阳光行政、阳光政治的突破口,并保障媒体独立、新闻自由。胡星斗同时指出,自己提出的"宪政社会主义"与由刘晓波等中国知识分 子签署的《零八宪章》还有一些区别:

"《零八宪章》的很多主张我都非常支持,但我觉得它有两个缺憾:没有与中国的文化和现实相结合。因为毕竟社会主义是中国执政党可能接受的方案,是一个稳健改革的方案。不过我所担忧的是,目前中国政府连稳健的改革都不愿意进行,那么会带来更大的危险。"

胡星斗还介绍说,他写给胡锦涛的这封信是注明寄给胡锦涛本人,同时通过朋友将建议带给一些中央高层。至于胡锦涛会不会做出回应,胡星斗认为并不重要,重要的是:

"以此唤醒民众和体制内干部,让他们了解真相,了解如何改善我们的国家,如何推进社会进步。"

作者:谢菲

责编:潇阳



LIU Ya-zhou stunned the world sent a letter to Hu Jintao Hu Xingdou

刘亚洲中将预言:10年内中国必向民主转型

LIU Ya-zhou National Defense University, political commissar of the Chinese Communists will accept the Hong Kong media interview recently predicted that within ten years China will transition to democracy. Remark immediately spread on the Internet. In addition, the North Institute, Professor Hu Xingdou recommendation letter addressed to Hu Jintao, admitted China's "dead end" and "way out."



LIU Ya-zhou in the interview with Hong Kong, "Phoenix Magazine" interview about the direction of political reform in China forecast. Hong Kong media had wanted to ask him to discuss the international environment in western China and China's "west strategy." National Defense University, as political commissar of the Chinese Communists, but also "general writer," said the LIU Ya-zhou in the latter part of it changed the subject interview, vigorously criticized the CCP's "money diplomacy" and that "soft power does not mean more money to upgrade" "China's big investment in Africa, the practice of bribery, but also give local people the Chinese government and enterprises is extremely offensive."

"Outspoken army 'heterogeneous'"

The Chinese Communist general also bluntly, China is inevitable in the next decade in transition to democracy, because "there is no retreat." LIU Ya-zhou, 57, is a former Chinese President Li Xiannian's son, but also Central Discipline Inspection Commission, member of the public's move immediately drew media attention, it quickly spread throughout the network forum. Yang Heng Chinese blog writers are told Deutsche Welle interview that LIU Ya-zhou's comments echo arguments that he was not surprised:

"As the military leaders I was surprised, but LIU Ya-zhou, then I do not say so surprised, he has always been very bold statement, have said something similar earlier. It is the army of 'aliens', but also represents a very conscientious, vision of the people. "

LIU Ya-zhou will also previously the Soviet Union in the interview, for example, that the failure of the Soviet Union was defeated mainly lies in the system. LIU Ya-zhou "The secret is not in the United States succeeded in Wall Street, but behind the enduring rule of law and the rule of law system. ... China does not lack the truth, there is a lack of tolerance of the soil of truth." Law school background, China political and social dynamics are very concerned that Yang Heng, LIU Ya-zhou, then represent the thoughts of many people within the Communist Party:

"That can not be allowed to further, and could not go on like this rule. Must be changed, as to how they change, all different point of view. But in China's political culture, no one to speak out these ideas. LIU Ya-zhou general different is that he started very early constitutional right of free speech. I think that what they have freedom of speech is such that you do not speak, by someone else is useless. "

Sent a letter to Hu Jintao on China's "dead end" and "way out"

Similarly, the right to exercise freedom of expression was also professor of Beijing Institute of economic research, "Studies on China" and "vulnerable groups Chinese economics" Hu Xingdou August 8 Letter To Hu Jintao proposed to explain China's "dead end" and "way out" view. Professor Hu Xingdou In an interview with Deutsche Welle interview, describes the original purpose of writing this recommendation letter:

"At present, China is at the crossroads of reform, the ruling party is also related to what course the critical moment. I feel the one hand, China's current economic development and other economic, political and social reforms have stagnated or even reverse the reform of the state. I concluded China has long failed to social equity and justice as the foundation for governance. "

胡星斗教授Bildunterschrift: Großansicht des Bildes mit der Bildunterschrift: Professor Hu Xingdou

This is Hu Xingdou in its Chinese President Hu Jintao to the recommendations of the letter mentioned in the first part of the Chinese are taking a "dead end" source, that fairness and justice have been killed, China has yet to take the country right path. For China's "way out" points raised by the proposal, Hu Xingdou first emphasize that the constitutional:

"I stand in line with China's national conditions take the gradual path of reform, do not advocate total Westernization of freedom, and it is called constitutional socialism."

Specific ideas include: sovereignty of the people, the right to vote, supervise, and the copyright; level authorized by the people, the people's deputies elected by universal suffrage; grassroots people self-government; to uphold the constitution of the absolute dignity. Professor Hu Xingdou also proposed to the sun as the sun financial administration, a breakthrough in the political sun, and protect the independence of the media, freedom of the press. Hu Xingdou also pointed out that his proposed "constitutional socialism," and by the Liu and other Chinese intellectuals have signed a "Charter and eight," there are some differences:

"" And eight charter "of the many ideas I have very supportive, but I think it has two shortcomings: not with the Chinese culture and reality combine. Because, after all, socialism is the ruling party may accept the proposal, is a sound reform program. but I worry that the current reform of the Chinese government are reluctant even to conduct sound, it will bring even greater danger. "

Hu Xingdou also explained that the letter he wrote to Hu Jintao Hu Jintao himself is sent to indicate the same time, recommended by a friend to bring some of the central level. As Hu Jintao will respond, Hu Xingdou that is not important, important is:

"In order to awaken the public and cadres within the system, so that they know the truth, learn how to improve our country, how to promote social progress."

Of: Jaffe

Zebian: Xiao Yang

http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,5879758,00.html

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